Credible Worries: Fed may be causing Next Great Depression

Date: Friday March 14, 2008
Source: Telegraph.co.uk – Anna Schwartz blames Fed for sub-prime crisis
- Crisis may make 1929 look like a ‘walk in the park’
Author: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
MRFC Principles: 2 (3,4,9,10,12)

Everyone like to talk about the economy these days but very few people have the gravitas and credibility to send out warnings to the general public like those now rolling out almost daily. While wanna be experts and pundits through out casual references and sensational warnings about America’s current economic woes seldom have institutional voices been so dramatic in their assessments. That is until recently when Telegraph writer Abrose Evans-Pritchard has published a series of startling stories about the criticism and warnings now coming from inside “the close-knit world of central banking.” In a stunning interview with 92 year old Anna Schwartz the Telegraph probes the shocking revelation by a revered figure at the Fed that

the central bank itself is the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its on actions engulf the financial system. Ms. Schwartz, the revered economist and co-author with Nobel laureate Milton Friedman: A Monetary History of the United States, has taken to chastising and rebuke. And according to Evans-Prichard, as far as rebukes go few are as credible and effective as “the scathing indictment of US Federal Reserve policy by Professor Anna Schwartz.”

The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it…They need to speak frankly to the market and acknowledge how bad the problems are, and acknowledge their won failures in letting this happen. This is what is needed to restore confidence…There never would have been a sub-prime mortgage crisis if the Fed had been alert. This is something Alan Greenspan must answer for.”

Professor Schwartz and the late Milton Friedman revolutionized thinking on the causes of the Great Depression in 1965 with their bombshell publication convincingly persuading Americans high and low that it was not the much maligned free-market system that had failed in the 1930’s but instead that it was “incompetent government bureaucrats at the Fed” who bore responsibility for the financial crisis. In the second article referenced above Evans-Pritchard hypothisis along the lines of what Free Capitalist radio listeners have been hearing for over a year now, that the present “crisis may make 1929 look like a walk in the park.”

Key Points:

• It took Friedman and Schwartz, 30 years later, to unmask the real culprit that caused the Great Depression (incompetent bureaucrats).
• The false theory advocated by the bureaucrats and politicians was that it was the “free market, unscrupulous capitalists, and speculating investors” that caused the Depression.
• Despite Friedman and Schwarts seminal work, the false theory is still advanced, taught and believed by American BOC culture today. This has made Americas vulnerable.
• Today’s bureaucrats and politicians are up to the same old tricks, blaming freedom, entrepreneurs and investors. See Yaron Brook’s “The Morality of Moneylending: A Short History”
• When a speculative home borrower loses a home to foreclosure, that is the “punishment” from the marketplace. Losing liberty is far more subtle.
• Laws that make “lenders” more responsible for borrowers decisions cannot increase productivity and therefore credit extensions will tighten and the market worsen

Lawmakers have recently started down the path to make it illegal for lenders to make loans where the borrower does not have “the reasonable ability to repay the loan.” However, this puts the lender in a sticky situation. Who decides, for the borrower, if he has the reasonable ability to repay the loan. Without defining key “terms” like this legislation contemplates the formula sets the stage for bureaucrats to decide arbitrarily and this makes the lenders more cautious. Credit tightens. However, the Fed is pumping more money into the market. So, excess supply of money (means cheap dollars), no or substantially less new lending means lower velocity of money (lower productivity).

Conclusion:

Alert and educated citizens should be aware of the storyline endlessly defended by bureaucrats and politicians and be on the lookout for attempts to blame our economic problems on everyone except those who were elected and those who were hired to manage the affairs of the government. Productivity not legislation or bureaucratic involvement is how America will recover from potentially the worse economic crisis in modern history. Those who keep their efforts focused on productivity will be well situated, those who do not will be consigned to telling victim stories.

Action Steps:

1. Read Yaron Brook’s “Morality of Money Lending” essay.
2. Read current Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernake’s address at Milton Friedman’s Ninetieth Birthday conference where he openly agrees with Freidman that the Fed caused the Great Depression.
3. Have a family council discussion about productivity. Openly brainstorm how your family can focus on productive, revenue creating activity.
4. Speak openly, even write letters to the editor or post online in opposition to government based solutions that seek to soften the impact of unwise borrowing.
5. Contact your Congressman or Senator’s office and make your position known about government intervention and incompetent bureaucrats being entrusted with more power.
6. Research & identify private capital alternatives as sources for items such as home purchases, car purchases, student loans, etc.
7. Consider alternatives to holding “cash” based long term investments, seek advice from a competent financial professional who understands proven principles of wealth and productivity.
8. Avoid speculation, avoid fear mongering, avoid panic -by staying informed and actively engaging in the marketplace in sound, principle based investments that are creating value for those who have been unwise in the easy money market of the late ’90s and early 2000s.
9. Commodities, gold, commodities, silver, commodities, commodities, commodities. Did I say commodities?